This research report highlights the key features, forecasts, trends and market dynamics needed to spur adoption of wearable smartwatch devices.
Wearables Market are going to stay for long! A new report predicts that the wearable market will be literally worth whopping $150 Billion by 2016.
In the event that these figures don’t sound insightful to you, and no matter how valid reason you might be carrying around, trust us, all your imaginations and assumptions are eventually going to take a deep breath and relax. While they do so, a research firm IDTechEx recently came up with few facts and numbers in its report that may grab your attention.
It’s quite apparent that wearable tech contributes a noteworthy foothold across consumer electronics segment, especially those products that are supposed to be worn on the person. Researchers said that the market would be worth over $30 Billion by the end of this year and grow further 10% annually to over $40bn by 2018.
“Fuelled by a frenzy of hype, funding, and global interest, wearable technology was catapulted to the top of the agenda for companies spanning the entire value chain and world. This investment manifested in hundreds of new products and extensive tailored R&D investigating relevant technology areas,” researchers noted.
In fact, it just doesn’t end with 2018. The research also states that those figures will keep on climbing high by 23% growth rate to over $100 Billion by 2023. However, those figures will then witness downfall, up to 11% by 2026 – valued at $150 Billion.
“However, the fickle nature of hype is beginning to show, and many companies are now progressing beyond discussing ‘wearable’ to focus on the detailed and varied sub-sectors,” researchers added.
The overall contribution will play a significant role across the industries such as healthcare & medical, fitness & wellness, infotainment, commercial, industrial, military, etc. The contribution of different wearable products will be comprised depending upon the location on the body such as head, ear, eyes, body (torso), arms, wrist, legs & feet, implantable, multi-location / adaptability by user or user case, etc.
By: Kasey Stanton 07 January 2015
It didn’t take more than a few minutes on the show floor at the 2014 International CES to realize that wearables were branching out far beyond wrist-wear. Over the past few years, wearables have become the perfect vehicles to capture data on our everyday actions and turn that into info we can use to improve our personal health and fitness.
At the end of 2013, CEA research estimated that more than 40 million personal health and wellness products would sell in 2013 and that that figure would rise to more than 70 million by 2018. Although that trend continues to grow, over the course of this past year we also witnessed the application of wearables expand beyond the confines of the fitness category.
The adaptation of these sensors created the potential to use wearables not just as data collectors, but as companions. If you can track your steps and heart rate, why can’t you track eye movement? Or in the case of iPal, the lack of eye movement, thus preventing drivers whose eyelids start to get heavy from falling asleep at the wheel. How about if a wearable that can track facial expressions, allowing individuals with disabilities or devastating diseases to live life more independently? In 2014, we began to see these products not just as accessories but as life-changing devices.
That being said, the evolution of wearables by no means indicates the decline of the ever-dependable smartwatch. With the much-anticipated unveiling of the Apple Watch in September and the continuing improvement of fit bands from a variety of companies, there continues to be a very high demand for real estate on the wrist.
One of the most exciting aspects of CES, in my personal opinion, is witnessing the technology behind a fun, futuristic gadget transform into a potentially life-saving product. When a trend grows so quickly and with so much success, you know there is a greater potential to be uncovered. After 2014, we may have only just skimmed the surface of what’s possible for wearables.
Are you attending #CES2015? Come visit the Wearables Marketplace, presented by Living in Digital Times at the Sands.
Wearable Electronic Fitness Devices Market Still Poised for Strong Growth
Wearable electronic devices for fitness shipments are forecast to reach 68.1 million units in 2015, down from 70 million units in 2014, according to Gartner, Inc.
This temporary dip in sales will be driven by an overlap in functionality between smart wristbands, other wearable fitness monitors and smartwatches. However, the market for smart wristbands and other fitness monitors will rebound in 2016 because of versatile designs and models with lower-cost displays.
“Fitness wearables are used for tracking health, which goes hand-in-hand with fitness and wellness,” said Angela McIntyre, research director at Gartner
“Consumers will be able to integrate the data from most wearables into a single account where their data can be analyzed using cognizant computing to provide useful insights to wearers.
Funding initiatives from Qualcomm, Apple (HealthKit), Google (Google Fit), Samsung (S.A.M.I.), Microsoft, Nike and Intel, among others, will build on early innovation in wearable fitness and health monitoring and create the infrastructure for merging data relevant to health and fitness.”
The five main fitness wearable form factors are
- smart wristbands,
- sports watches,
- other fitness monitors,
- heart rate monitor chest straps
- smart garments.
Sports watches and chest straps are well established, compared with smart wristbands first popularized by the Jawbone Up, which launched in 2011. However, Gartner believes that the smart garment product category has the greatest potential for growth going forward because the category is emerging from the testing phase and smart shirts are available to athletes and coaches of professional teams. Smart garment shipments are forecast to grow from 0.1 million units in 2014 to 26 million units in 2016 (see Table 1).
– Table 1 —
Worldwide Wearable Electronic Fitness Devices Shipments Forecast, 2013-2016
Source: Gartner (October 2014)
For the present, however, smart wristbands and other fitness monitors are the most popular form factors.
“Smartwatches having retail prices of $149 or more will typically have the capability to track activity and have accelerometers and gyroscopes similar to their smart wristband cousins,”
said Ms. McIntyre. “The smartwatches differ from smart wristbands in that smartwatches need to display the time and have a user interface oriented around communication. However, some smart wristbands have the ability to display and send text messages. The overlap in functionality between smart wristbands and smartwatches is expected to continue.”
Gartner further predicts that in 2018 through 2020, 25 percent of smart wristbands and other fitness monitors will be sold through nonretail channels.During this time scale, smart wristbands and other fitness monitors will be offered increasingly by gyms, wellness providers, insurance providers, weight loss clinics or employers, sometimes at subsidized prices or for free.
These companies will serve as a growing distribution channel for device manufacturers. The new channels also result from fitness monitors being integrated into employee badges or identification bracelets for access control.
Business-to-consumer (B2C) companies will have rewards or gamification linked to the use of wearables as a way of keeping customers engaged with their brands.
More detailed analysis is available in the report “Forecast: Wearable Electronic Devices for Fitness, Worldwide, 2014.”
The report is available on Gartner’s website at http://www.gartner.com/document/2882518.
Wearables face unique obstacles that will lead them to have less of an immediate market impact compared with tablets and smartphones. For now, most of the devices need to connect with a smartphone or tablet for most of their functionality.
Wearables also suffer from a perception problem.
Consumers still don’t understand how a wearable might really benefit them. In a recent report on the wearable computing market from BI Intelligence, we also discuss other barriers to adoption, including price, lack of functionality, and style.
Wearables Scrutinized Over The Long Term
We also look at how how the wearables market will perform in the long run. We forecast out shipments numbers, explain why the smartwatch will be the leading wearable device category going forward, and analyze proprietary results from our BI Intelligence consumer survey on smartwatch purchase intent.
Here are some key points from the report:
We estimate the global wearables market will grow at a compound annual rate of 35% over the next five years,
reaching 148 million units shipped annually in 2019, up from 33 million units shipped this year.
The smartwatch will be the leading product category and take an increasingly large share of wearable shipments.
We estimate smartwatch shipments will rise by a compound annual rate of 41% over the next five years.
Smartwatches will account for 59% of total wearable device shipments this year, and that share will expand to just over 70% of shipments by 2019
The Apple Watch will account for 40% of smartwatch shipments in 2015 and reach a peak 48% share in 2017.
Fitness bands and miscellaneous wearable device types, like smart eyewear, will continue to cater to niche audiences.
Fitness bands, because of their appeal to niche audiences interested in health and exercise, will see their share of the wearable device market contract
to a 20% share in 2019, down from 36% this year. There will be some blur between fitness bands and smartwatches.
Now that both Apple and Google are in the smartwatch market, they will dominate, much as they have in the smartphone and tablet markets.
Because these platforms make up over 90% of the entire mobile platform market, many mobile users interested in wearable devices
will gravitate toward Apple Watches and Android Wear-based devices.
Smartwatches in particular must become standalone computing devices with more robust functionality.
Barriers still persist, and these will inhibit consumer wearables adoption and usage for the devices to become mainstream. Other barriers include small screen size, clunky style, limited battery life, and lack of a “killer app” that can drive adoption.
In full, the report:
- Forecasts annual shipments of wearable computing devices between 2014 and 2019.
- Breaks down wearable computing device shipments by device category, including smartwatches, fitness bands, and other wearables like Google Glass.
- Reveals and analyzes BI Intelligence smartwatch consumer survey results.
- Discusses barriers to mainstream adoption including style limited functionality, and lack of a killer app ecosystem.
- Looks at the potential for Apple and Google to dominate with Apple Watch and Android Wear.
For full access to all BI Intelligence’s charts, data, and analysis on the mobile and Internet of Things industry, sign up for a two-week trial.
Gartner Says the Processing, Sensing and Communications Semiconductor Device Portion of the IoT Is Set for Rapid Growth
Automotive, LED Lighting and Home Consumer Segments to Drive a Huge Portion of Overall Semiconductor Growth Through 2020
The processing, sensing and communications semiconductor device portion of the Internet of Things (IoT) will be a rapidly growing segment of the total semiconductor market, growing 36.2 percent in 2015, compared with the overall semiconductor market growth of 5.7 percent, according to Gartner, Inc. Processing will be the largest revenue contributor to the IoT “things” semiconductor device forecast, at $7.58 billion in 2015, while sensors will see the strongest growth, with 47.5 percent growth in 2015.
The processing semiconductor device segment consists of microcontrollers and embedded processors, while the sensing semiconductor segment includes optical and nonoptical sensors.
“The demand for billions of things will ripple throughout the entire value chain, from software and services to semiconductor devices,” said Alfonso Velosa, research director at Gartner. “These ‘things’ will drive huge demand for individual chips. IoT semiconductor growth will come from industries spanning consumer, industrial, medical, automotive and others.” (see Figure 1)
Figure 1. IoT Semiconductor Revenue by Electronic Equipment (Millions of Dollars)
Source: Gartner (October 2014)
Gartner’s forecast for the top 15 things, based on semiconductor revenue, highlights some very interesting trends:
- The automotive industry plays a huge role in the semiconductor demand from things through the end of the decade, with six segments in the top 15. Regulations for safety and a need for convenience and more autonomous vehicles are driving tremendous demand for new semiconductor devices silicon in the car. One example of how the IoT will transform an automobile is the use of predictive maintenance. Using small sensors throughout the engine, predictive maintenance allows for a better experience for the consumer while enabling tremendous cost savings for both the consumer and the automotive dealer.
- LED lighting will be a huge volume play, both in lowering costs and enabling new services through its capability to connect, network and sense the environment.
- Consumers looking to enhance their lifestyles will also play a central role in growing IoT demand, which in turn will create more demand for semiconductors. The smart TV and set-top box (STB) revenue will continue to grow, due to the increased need for processing and relatively expensive bill of materials (BOM) compared with a traditional embedded “thing”.
- Smart glasses and smartwatches also benefit from a larger BOM cost and will be in more demand as wearables become a bigger part of every consumer’s life. Energy savings has always been a real value-add for the IoT.
“Gartner forecasts almost 30 percent growth through 2020 for IoT semiconductor revenue,” said Dean Freeman, research vice president at Gartner. “This revenue spans every conceivable industry and is driven by the immense scale of low-cost devices. Some in the industry believe this growth will transform the semiconductor industry. However, further investigation shows that the majority of IoT devices are commodity offerings. The truth is that inexpensive devices are one of the biggest enablers of IoT.”
More detailed analysis is available in the report “Forecast Analysis: IoT Endpoints — Sensing, Processing and Communications Semiconductors, Worldwide, 2014 Update.” The report is available on Gartner’s website at http://www.gartner.com/document/2884217.
Analysts will unveil the new Gartner IoT forecast at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2014, November 9-13 in Barcelona, Spain. For more information about the conference please visit www.gartnerevent.com/eu/sym. Press can register by contacting Laurence Goasduff at email@example.com.
While wearable devices are the tech industry’s most hyped category for 2014, market researchers at the NPD Group predict that the market will begin to slow down quickly, contracting by 2016 before returning to more moderate growth.
Wearable devices first began to take off in 2013 with the popularity of the Pebble smart watch and various tiny fitness and health trackers. NPD believes that the market will grow to 48 million units sold this year, and will surge to 91 million units in 2015.
- Early 2015 launch
- Health & fitness focus
- Biometric sensors
- iPhone connectivity
- Two sizes for men & women
However, in 2016 NPD believes that the market could actually begin to slow down after the hype around wearables begins to die. In its long-term forecasts, the market will again return to growth by 2018, but at a slower rate than the current explosion.
“We expect that the dynamics of the wearables market will be similar to DVD, LCD TV, smartphones, and other digital consumer markets with commoditized hardware,” according to Paul Gray, director of European TV research for NPD DisplaySearch. “The arrival of Samsung, LGE, and other large, cost-efficient manufacturers to the wearables market would bring prices and margins down.”
For its forecast, NPD has predicted three possible outcomes for wearable device growth: the bearish “forward into the past” scenario, a middle-ground “incidental to essential” scenario, and finally the bullish “persuasive and pervasive” outcome.
For the so-called “forward into the past” outcome, NPD sees wealthy early adopters being the first owners and reinforcing the desirability of wearable devices. This appeal would eventually trickle down to lower ends of the market as prices drop, but NPD sees the market shrinking dramatically as the fashionability of wearable devices fades.
NPD’s second outcome, the “incidental to essential” scenario, sees wearable devices becoming essential due to their intrinsic usefulness. In this situation, NPD compared the combinations of devices and services to Apple’s iTunes, as something that could “lock in” users to a certain wearable platform.
NPD still believes a “fashion effect” will lead to a slight decline, but in major markets such as North America and Europe, it projects that the “essential” nature of wearables and tightly connected ecosystems would lead strong brands to bundle devices and see a more moderate decline.
The third and final scenario presented by NPD, “persuasive and pervasive,” is the most bullish forecast offered by the research group. In this situation, wearable devices offer significant health benefits and body sensing becomes a critical part of everyday life, allowing users to detect medical issues, securely identify themselves, and more.
These strengths could lead private and public healthcare providers to recommend wearable devices to their patients. The health benefits would offset any effects from fashion and hype, and NPD believes sales could plateau in 2016 rather than decline.
Recent rumors have suggested Apple will join the list of electronics makers who are attempting to cash in on the consumer hype for wearable devices. The company has hired something of a “dream team” of experts from the fashion, fitness and medicine fields, leading many to speculate that the company will debut a so-called “iWatch” later this year.
Gartner Says By 2017, 50 Percent of Internet of Things Solutions Will Originate in Startups That Are Less Than Three Years Old
Analysts Explore Major Business and Technology Trends at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2014 in Orlando
Gartner’s Maverick Research Sparks New, Unconventional Insights
Makers and startups, not tech providers, consumer goods companies or enterprises, will drive acceptance, use and growth in the Internet of Things (IoT) through the creation of a multitude of niche applications, according to Gartner, Inc. Gartner predicts that by 2017, 50 percent of IoT solutions (typically a product combined with a service) will originate in startups that are less than three years old.
Gartner defines “makers” as inventors, tinkerers and entrepreneurs who create and manufacture products using traditional tools and new digital design and rapid prototyping and manufacturing technologies. “Startups” are fledgling businesses that are often technology-focused and have the potential for high growth.
“Conventional wisdom is that the growth of the Internet of Things is driven by large enterprises. As is always the case, there is an element of truth in conventional wisdom and major consumer goods companies, utilities, manufacturers and other large enterprises are, indeed, developing IoT product offerings,” said Pete Basiliere, research vice president at Gartner. “However Gartner’s Maverick research finds that it is the makers and the startups who are the ones shaping the IoT. Individuals and small companies that span the globe are developing IoT solutions to real-world, often niche problems. They are taking advantage of low-cost electronics, traditional manufacturing and 3D printing tools, and open- and closed-source hardware and software to create IoT devices that improve processes and lives.”
Gartner analysts unveiled these findings at the sold out Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, which is taking place here through today.
Gartner’s Maverick research is designed to spark new, unconventional insights. Maverick research is unconstrained by Gartner’s typical broad consensus-formation process to deliver breakthrough, innovative and disruptive ideas from the company’s research incubator to help organizations get ahead of the mainstream and take advantage of trends and insights that could impact IT strategy and the wider organization.
“Managers often assume the IoT is about business-to-business and business-to-consumer opportunities, relying on technologists within their enterprises to develop the necessary systems and connected items. However, these firms are slow-moving elephants that cannot react quickly to what is happening underneath their feet,” said Mr. Basiliere. “Product development processes within most large enterprises are too ponderous and ROI-driven to produce anything but high-volume, lowest-common-denominator IoT objects. The result is the development of a low number of IoT uses that garner high amounts of revenue, while makers, startups and crowdsourcing efforts result in high numbers of low-revenue niche IoT applications.”
For this reason, senior management and emerging technology strategists within large enterprises must transform their product discovery processes. Whether at consumer goods companies or in the healthcare, utilities, wireless, manufacturing or other vertical markets, managers must encourage makers within their organizations to develop IoT concepts. They must closely examine the output from these makers and check the feasibility of transferring the underlying ideas into their own organizations.
“Innovation is necessary for an organization to sustain value over time and create competitive advantage. Yet in many organizations, the corporate culture and processes stagnate and harden, discouraging innovation as a result,” said Mr. Basiliere. “In the meantime, makers and startups worldwide are charging ahead with identifying numerous, often niche problems and innovating solutions using IoT concepts. They will drive not only consumer and enterprise acceptance of the IoT, but also the creative solutions that enterprises could not possibly discern, resulting in an “Internet of Very Different Things.”
Mr. Basiliere cited the example of entrepreneurs and individuals who are leveraging the low-cost Arduino open-source electronics platform, entry-level 3D printers, and traditional woodworking and machine tools to build their own IoT devices. Gartner has found that these grassroots projects focus on managing and controlling devices in the home and are more focused on providing convenience (such as turning on the heat before you arrive home) than cost savings (the focus of enterprise-sector and public-sector IoT).
Similar to other technology advances historically, the growth promise associated with the early stages of IoT will lead to the creation and funding of a large number of startup organizations that will maneuver to capture what they perceive to be early opportunities or overlooked product niches. This will lead to creative solutions and a wide range of products, many of which will fail in the market. Nevertheless, the process will lead to growth as the successful solutions are often consolidated by larger suppliers, and the overall market expands. As a result, makers enable people in underserved and niche markets worldwide — people who would not otherwise encounter the IoT offerings of large enterprises — to experience and benefit from connected device.
“It won’t all be smooth sailing. Certainly there is no small number of factors working against makers and startups, whether they have an IoT offering or a more traditional product or service,” said Mr. Basiliere. “Most small businesses fail within five years, and many of the ‘successful’ ones will be lifestyle companies that barely generate enough revenue to support an individual or family.”
Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is the world’s leading information technology research and advisory company. We deliver the technology-related insight necessary for our clients to make the right decisions, every day. From CIOs and senior IT leaders in corporations and government agencies, to business leaders in high-tech and telecom enterprises and professional services firms, to technology investors, we are the valuable partner to clients in over 9,000 distinct enterprises worldwide. Through the resources of Gartner Research, Gartner Executive Programs, Gartner Consulting and Gartner Events, Gartner works with every client to research, analyze and interpret the business of IT within the context of their individual role. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, USA, and has 6,400 associates, including more than 1,480 research analysts and consultants, and clients in 85 countries. For more information, visit www.gartner.com.